Here’s some of my 2012 predictions, ok…. guesses:
1. Real Options will become a bigger part of planning software and application development projects. Unlike other projects we’re not discounting a straight stream of cash flows. We’re discounting a complicated tree of decisions.
2. Scrum Will Breakup – The forces that made it popular will rip it apart.
3. Agile’s Luster Becomes Rustier – The torrent of zealous marketing and hype will take its toll on agile. There will be increased backlash and doubt through 2012.
4. The Kanban Rock Will be Turned Over – Executives will look into Kanban for software development and ask “Where’s the value here?”
5. Managed Service Providers Will Enter Software Development – Utilizing contingent labor available through sites like Guru.com they’re finding ways to drive down the costs of software development for cheap, simple, fixed bid projects.
6. Agile 2.0 Bandwagon – The agile 2.0 proponents will attempt to reboot life into the “movement”.
7. Startups get faster, leaner – Driving towards continuous, high quality delivery…some startups will take Eric Ries Lean Startup philosophy further and push tool vendors, or even create their own tools.
8. Tools Start To Takeover – We may have stretched the limits of new practices and patterns. Time for the tools crowd to take over? NoSQL and the rejection of OOD&D as too complex for most development efforts may yield simpler higher quality tools.
I never can seem to round out my lists to 10. How do other writers do that? Oh well. See you in the new year. 🙂