2012 Predictions


Here’s some of my 2012 predictions, ok…. guesses:

1. Real Options will become a bigger part of planning software and application development projects.  Unlike other projects we’re not discounting a straight stream of cash flows.  We’re discounting a complicated tree of decisions.

2. Scrum Will Breakup – The forces that made it popular will rip it apart.

3. Agile’s Luster Becomes Rustier – The torrent of zealous marketing and hype will take its toll on agile.  There will be increased backlash and doubt through 2012.

4. The Kanban Rock Will be Turned Over –  Executives will look into Kanban for software development and ask “Where’s the value here?”

5.  Managed Service Providers Will Enter Software Development – Utilizing contingent labor available through sites like Guru.com they’re finding ways to drive down the costs of software development for cheap, simple, fixed bid projects.

6.  Agile 2.0 Bandwagon – The agile 2.0 proponents will attempt to reboot life into the “movement”.

7.  Startups get faster, leaner – Driving towards continuous, high quality delivery…some startups will take Eric Ries Lean Startup philosophy further and push tool vendors, or even create their own tools.

8. Tools Start To Takeover – We may have stretched the limits of new practices and patterns.  Time for the tools crowd to take over?  NoSQL and the rejection of OOD&D as too complex for most development efforts may yield simpler higher quality tools.

I never can seem to round out my lists to 10.  How do other writers do that?  Oh well.  See you in the new year.  🙂

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4 thoughts on “2012 Predictions

  1. Hi Christopher,

    Very impressive predictions, I was stuck by how a couple of these are ideas I have been booting around.

    1. Stronger contracts and insurance against software failure (very like using market forces and real options to mitigate financial risk)
    2. Applying the “Li and Fung model” of network orchestration to software development so that the best players for a software project come together to deliver outcomes to clients.

    Good to know we are getting closer to using technology to help with the IT project mortality rate in industry. Really enjoyed the post.

    cheers,
    Krishna

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